Bartlett, Tennessee 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

354
FXUS64 KMEG 102036
AFDMEG

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Memphis TN
236 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

...New SYNOPSIS, DISCUSSION...

.SYNOPSIS...
Issued at 236 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Rain chances will gradually come to an end tonight as a weak cold
front moves through the Mid-South. This will bring slightly cooler
temperatures to the area for Monday and Tuesday. Additional
showers and possibly thunderstorms are expected for Wednesday into
Wednesday night as an upper-level trough moves through the
Mississippi Valley. Upper level ridging will build back into the
region with a return of above normal temperatures through the
remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
(This evening through next Saturday)
Issued at 236 PM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Latest surface analysis places an occluding front just west of the
Mississippi River this afternoon. Regional WSR-88D radar trends
show a thin line of showers extending along this front.
Temperatures ahead of this boundary have warmed into the 70s at
most locations.

The aforementioned front will push through the Mid-South tonight,
bringing an end of the recent period of rainfall across the area.
HREF and other short term guidance suggests the potential for some
patchy fog to develop tonight as skies clear and winds decouple
overnight. Temperatures for Monday and Tuesday will be slightly
cooler with temperatures mainly in the 60s with lows in the 40s.

12Z operational models remain in decent agreement as a mid-level
trough moves across the Mississippi Valley Wednesday into
Wednesday night. This next system has been trending wetter in
operational long-term models as some of the Gulf moisture from
the future remnants of Tropical Storm Rafael advect up into the
Lower Mississippi Valley. Long range ensemble output suggests
limited instability with this mid-week system with probabilities
of 500 J/kg or greater remaining near the Gulf Coast. Upper-
level ridging is expected to build back into the region for late
week into the start of next weekend along with a continuation of
above normal temperatures for November.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1140 AM CST Sun Nov 10 2024

Expect mainly MVFR cigs until the front moves through then a quick
improvement to VFR except at TUP where low clouds will linger into
Monday morning. Kept a 4-6 hour window for thunder chances given
the gradual increase in instability over the last few hours. HREF
is showing a 30-40% chance of dense fog from 04z-13z along the
MEM-MKL corridor so will need to keep an eye on that if the
gradient collapses overnight.

&&

.MEG WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
MO...None.
MS...None.
TN...None.
&&

$$

PUBLIC FORECAST...CJC
AVIATION...SJM